Every year, analysts and fans predict a handful of teams to finish at the bottom of the league, regardless of the sport; the majority of them fulfill this prophecy. Yet every year, there is one team that surprises everyone and emerges as one of the top teams in the league. Without fail, these teams go through the same three stages (I do not count baseball because the long season forces a team to prove its worth).
1) The team gets off to a fast start, but no one is quite ready to admit that they are legitimately good. Has their schedule been easy? Did they just get lucky? These questions remain unanswered, and the bandwagon remains relatively empty.
2) The team’s success continues. It’s somewhere between the ½ and 2/3 point of the season, and people jump on the bandwagon. They have supposedly proven their worth by maintaining their winning ways.
3. It’s playoff time. Most analysts pick the surprise team (that now sits near the top of the league) to go deep into the playoffs. But when it comes to game time, they choke. All I want to say is... I told you so.
Lets take a look at the 2008 Tennessee Titans. 13-3 record, top defense, top running game, Kerry Collins at QB. After Vin
ce Young went down with an injury, most wrote off the Titans. How could they win with such a bad QB? They managed to do so because of that defense and Chris Johnson. But you cannot ignore QB play forever. An 80.2 QB rating, 12 TDs and 7 picks is not good. Not surprisingly, they lost to the Ravens. Why? The teams were identical in every way except one: Baltimore had a better passing game. (Although it’s like comparing Twitter to Myspace: Twitter is better, but they’re both awful. Also, on a side note, Mark Teixeira just hit a home run in game 2 of the World Series. And only two innings ago Joe Buck said Pedro was the type of pitcher that Teixeira could break out against. That’s why I love the man).Next example: '07-'08 New Orleans Hornets. Chris Paul is awesome. David West is pretty solid. The rest of the team is terrible but feeding off of Paul's play. Everyone picked the Hornets to be somewhere between mediocre and good. They ended up with the second best record in the western conference. What happened? They lost in 7 games to the injury-depleted San Antonio Spurs.
The list keeps going: ('06-'07 Dallas Mavericks, '08 Miami Dolphins, '07-'08 Minnesota Wild, '07-'08 Montreal Canadians.) Now let's look at the champs of the last five years in the NFL, NBA and NHL.
2009: Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Lakers, Pittsburgh Penguins
2008: New York Giants, Boston Celtics, Detroit Red Wings
2007: Indianapolis Colts, San Antonio Spurs, Anaheim Ducks
2006: Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Heat, Carolina Hurricanes
2005: New England Patriots, San Antonio Spurs, No winner (Cancelled Season)
Of all of these teams, only the New York Giants was a truly unexpected winner. But they were predicted to be playoff contenders anyway. So why air this frustration right now? The beginning of the NBA season (and the Denver Broncos. Mark my words. They’ll be 12-4 and lose their first playoff game). It’s true the Portland Trail Blazers have potential to greatly improve, especially with Greg Oden finally making himself worthy of the #1 overall pick. It’s also possible that the Dallas Mavericks will reappear at the top of the western conference thanks to a legitimate bench. In the end, however, the only teams that have a true shot at winning the title are the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Cavs and Spurs. I have no idea what order they will finish in at the end of the regular season. Maybe the Blazers and Mavs sneak ahead of them. But when all is said and done, the champ will be one of these five teams. Don’t make a pick just to look flashy. Most importantly, when a few teams emerge, I am begging you not to jump on the bandwagon. Stick with your preseason instincts.





