Tuesday, September 7, 2010

16 Sounds Better Than 18

I know I'm a little late on the 18 game schedule train, but I seem to be in the minority and must defend my position.

The 18 game schedule is a terrible idea. For argument's sake, let's ignore the financial ramifications that will clearly play a large role in whichever way this unfolds. From a pure what-is-better-for-an-NFL-fan standpoint, this should be a clear cut issue.

16 games is better.

I know 16 games subject us to more preseason misery. So before you write scathing comments which attack my views (which I encourage, by the way. There's nothing like some healthy banter), hear me out for a second.

1. Week 18/19/20 - Most fans want to eliminate the preseason because the games are meaningless. Well, let's flash back to Week 17, '09-'10 season. Here is the slate of games from that week:

Indianapolis (14-1) at Buffalo (5-10)
New Orleans (13-2) at Carolina (7-8)
Atlanta (8-7) at Tampa Bay (3-12)
San Francisco (7-8) at Saint Louis (1-14)
New York Giants (8-7) at Minnesota (11-4)*
Pittsburgh (8-7) at Miami (7-8)*
New England (10-5) at Houston (8-7)*
Chicago (6-9) at Detroit (2-13)
Jacksonville (7-8) at Cleveland (4-11)
Philadelphia (11-4) at Dallas (10-5)*
Kansas City (3-12) at Denver (8-7)*
Washington (4-11) at San Diego (12-3)
Tennessee (7-8) at Seattle (5-10)
Green Bay (10-5) at Arizona (9-6)*
Cincinnati (10-5) at New York Jets (8-7)*
Baltimore (8-7) at Oakland (5-10)*

Games with a "*" impacted playoff contenders and seeding.

In total, 8 games were meaningful. Of those 8 games, 9 of 16 teams cared about the result. So while these 9 teams fought for playoff position or a playoff birth, the gods had already determined the exact fate of the other 23 NFL teams. 72% of the NFL was already waiting for next season by Week 17.

Assuming another bye week is added to an 18 game season, weeks 18, 19 and 20 become an extension of week 17. On the one hand, some division and wild card races will continue because of an extended schedule. Teams 2 or 3 games behind will cease to be mathematically eliminated prior to week 17. On the other hand, races that are already over will linger for 4, maybe 5 weeks. Do we really want to watch Curtis Painter start for 4 weeks?

Of those 8 meaningful games, 4 solely impacted playoff position. While it's moderately satisfying to watch teams battle for seeding, coaches will ultimately opt in favor of health over seeding. Jim Caldwell has proven that health prevails over everything, even an undefeated season. The Arizona Cardinals and Ken Wisenhunt have tanked at the end of the last two seasons to ensure an injury-free roster. So while 8 games might be meaningful on the surface, only half of those games have true importance.

Now we're down to 4 of 16 games, and 5 of 32 NFL teams that care about games after week 16. Maybe I'm alone, but this leaves me less than thrilled.

2. Shorter Careers - We won't feel this effect immediately. But for future NFL players, an 18 game pounding will lead to more hits, and eventually, more injuries. Most running backs barely make it past 30. Add two more games and that age drops to 28/29. In only 8 NFL seasons, a player will have an extra 16 games under his belt. If the NFL is so apt to cut down on concussions and ensure the long term health of NFL players, a longer schedule is not the answer.

3. Less Is More - The clamor for an 18 game schedule has erupted with the shadow of the NFL season looming. Any real football fan struggles through the summer in anticipation of football. And now we want to add games not because we want more football, but simply because we cannot stand that preseason delays our satisfaction for a mere two weeks. This 16 game formula has worked well for 30 years. We have to rid ourselves of preseason, not add more games.

With that in mind, there's an easy solution to this entire issue: Add two more bye weeks to the regular season. Owners increase profit since TV contracts will extend for two more weeks. Players will have more time to recuperate and injuries will play a reduced role in the final standings. While it's mildly frustrating for fans since their football teams will have more byes, there will be 19 weeks of football. Meaningful football.

3 comments:

  1. 100% in agreement. 18 games would lead to more injuries and shorter careers.

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  2. Dylan,

    I also believe an 18 game schedule is too much. Not only are we looking at shorter careers and more frequent injuries, but how about young players trying to make a squad with basically a 2 week window of opportunity? Then again, the CBA (should there be one) may address such issues by expanding rosters and maybe larger developmental teams.

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  3. I understand the impulse to make the NFL better, and I'm definitely not opposed to change. But this potential decision to move to 18 games has come on way to quickly and seems to contradict everything the NFL has stood for recently.

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