NFL Picks Week 1

Preseason has fallen from view, and the 18 game schedule discussion has officially lost its absurdly large head of steam. So let's move on to what matters.

Game picks (picks in bold).

Minnesota Vikings (+5) at New Orleans Saints

We've already seen this game. Same players, same location (well, take away Sidney Rice and Scott Fujita). Even though New Orleans won it on the scoreboard, Minnesota won it everywhere else. I'll go out on a limb and predict that Peterson and Favre will be able to control their inner turnover beasts for 60 minutes. If Peterson can control the clock on the ground (which shouldn't be a problem considering New Orleans' run defense reminds me of We Are Marshall at the beginning of the movie), Minnesota will win. One more important note about this game: Drew Brees is on the cover of Madden. Beware.

Carolina Panthers (+7) at New York Giants

We will discount last year's matchup considering the Giants were in a Ryan Leaf-like tailspin. As much as I like the Giants to win this game, I refuse to fall into the Vegas trap. On paper, this is a one-sided game. But 7 points puts a little more than a healthy dose of faith in the Giants, and not enough in John Fox. Especially when the "coach with his job on the line" factor looms over this game. It's important to note that this differs from the "I know I'm going to be fired regardless" factor which applies to Lovie Smith. The first is highly motivating, while the second is completely destructive. Lucky for Carolina, Fox has yet to move into Lovie Smith territory.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Buffalo Bills

A 3 point spread for such an obviously lopsided matchup worries me. But not enough to side with Trent Edwards. Buffalo has quietly managed to avoid improving their team for at least 5 seasons in a row. Miami has followed the opposite trend, adding Brandon Marshall in the offseason. Meanwhile, Lee Evans wastes his career and fantasy potential in the freezing cold with no QB. What a shame. Even more of a shame since he's on one of my fantasy teams.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Unfortunately for Dennis Dixon, this team can no longer employ the "rally around the new QB" tactic because Big Ben's absence is nothing new. A healthy Michael Turner and a functioning Atlanta offense will spell trouble for the quietly aging Pittsburgh defense. And I did pick the Steelers to go 6-10. To avoid hypocrisy, I cannot change course and have faith in any team lead by Dennis Dixon.

Detroit Lions (+6.5) at Chicago Bears

If there were ever a sign that a rookie was destined for greatness, it was Ndamukong Suh's malicious and blatantly intentional hurling of Jake Delhomme. If there's anything that characterizes great defensive players, it's a nasty edge that instills fear in opponents. As much as coaches want to teach technique and footwork on the defensive line, a nasty attitude is 90% of the battle. And Suh has more of it than he knows what to do with. Anyway, about the game. A Mike Martz/Jay Cutler offense is asking for disaster. A timing based offense lead by a quarterback who has a penchant for interceptions is almost as bad as locking Big Ben in a bathroom with another 20 year-old-girl. At the end of the season, I'll be the one waiving goodbye to Lovie Smith saying, "I told you so."

New England Patriots (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Patriots are stronger than they appear. Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo headline a young linebacking crew and defense. But if there's anything we've learned in the Bill Belichick era, it's that we should ignore any perceived personnel issues on defense. And now that Wes Welker is seemingly playing at full strength (which, by the way, is absolutely absurd. Another note: I hate the people who call Welker a Comeback Player of the Year candidate. He missed 1 1/2 games total last season), this offense could easily regain its record setting form. Match that with the hype machine that defines the Cincinnati Bengals and we have a recipe for a blowout.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) vs. Cleveland Browns

I can't decide if Jake Delhomme over Derek Anderson is an improvement. Regardless, the Browns still lack, well, everything. At least Tampa Bay has some semblance of a running game and QB who has shown some promise. Can't say that much for the Browns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos

Similar to the Browns/Bucs, this is a matchup of who do I hate less. David Garrard isn't a total disaster and MJD's career appears alarmingly similar to that of Barry Sanders. Plus it's hard to pick against a guy whose motivation comes not only from winning, but also from padding his own fantasy stats. On the other side of the field there's one simple equation that adequately sums up the future of that team:

Beginning of the Tim Tebow Era + Elvis Dumervil Injury = End of the Josh McDaniels Era

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans

Every part of me wants to pick the Texans. Almost as much as any movie fan wants Hickory to win the state championship in Hoosiers. Even though the Texans have Hickory-like support, they can't and won't put it together on the field. Chemistry overcomes talent in movies, but not in the NFL. And the Texans have once again done nothing to improve their team. Flashy offense, poor defense, 8-8 record, and 0-1 to start.

Tennessee Titans (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders

I'm in love with Tennessee this year. To the point that I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the NFC championship game. Add in the possibility of Albert Haynesworth rejoining the team and rejuvenating his career and we're looking at an extremely strong team. I'm aware Vince Young throws the ball like John McCain if he played QB. But the threat of Chris Johnson is almost as deadly as CJ himself. And Kenny Britt isn't too bad either.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

It's hard to hate on Aaron Rodgers, and even harder to like the Eagles. Rookie QB plus relatively inexperienced running back equals disaster. On the flip side, look for Brent Celek's statistics to improve from his already big year in '09. Kevin Kolb will look to him with no other possession receiver/big target to throw the ball towards when he's in trouble. But back to the Packers. Even though I do like their chances in the NFC, they've swiftly moved into the well documented overrated-underrated category. Hype always scares me, and they seem to have a little too much of it.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

In a matchup featuring the most boring division in football, I actually support the direction both teams are headed. Seattle continues to disassemble its aging core and SF finally has a potent offense with some trace of continuity. John Clayton asserted that Alex Smith had no potential to improve because of his perceived lack of accuracy. Unfortunately for Mr. Clayton, he's looking at way too small a sample size. Smith has played a full season once in his career (and there was no one to throw to at the time).

Saint Louis Rams (+4) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Ken Wisenhunt made the wrong choice. Any time the better QB loses the starting job for unforeseen reasons, it's the coach's ego that is at fault. I'm not saying that Matt Leinart is great by any means, but he's better than Derek Anderson. Wisenhunt has coasted these last few seasons, with his coaching deficiencies hiding behind Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Time for some real exposure.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Washington Redskins

The Redskins have gone through an interesting evolution over the last few months. Donovan McNabb comes on board and the Redskins stock rises. The Albert Haynesworth fiasco erupts and the stock falls. People start to believe in the new era Redskins rallying together to have a comeback year. Too many people pick the Redskins as sleepers, and we're back to hating them. And now on the eve of the season, Redskins' fervor is heating up, again. I'm not ready to jump on board.

New York Jets (-2.5) at Baltimore Ravens

The injury bug has ripped apart the Ravens secondary worse than T.O.'s dismantling of the Eagles in his short time there. Yes, Indianapolis and New Orleans proved that offense wins championships too, but their defenses stepped it up in the playoffs. During the first Indy Super Bowl run, the run defense managed to resurrect itself faster than Wes Welker's ACL. Meanwhile New Orleans' ability to create turnovers hid the rest of its defensive deficiencies. Baltimore has no secondary and an aging Ray Lewis. Be cautious.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

You know San Diego is preparing for one "eff you Vincent Jackson, we don't need you" game where the offenses blows up and scores 35 points. Ryan Matthews seems as if he can't not succeed (Yes, the double negative was necessary). Kansas City will be better with Eric Berry roaming around the secondary and Charlie Weis on the sidelines. Things are looking better, without a doubt. But Phillip Rivers is too good a regular season QB, and 4.5 points is a week 1 line. Give it a few weeks and Kansas City will become much bigger underdogs.